Gracie v. Hughes II

So Eduardo and I have had this ongoing discussion about the merits of the Gracie vs. Hughes mixed martial arts (MMA) fight that they will have this weekend.

Don't get me wrong, I think what Royce Gracie accomplished in the mid 90's was truly a feat. He revolutionized the sport to a point that before he entered the octagon everyone thought that the boxer or any of the countless other forms of martial artist where going to prevail. No one gave Royce (the skinny guy) from Brazil a shot. That is until he steamrolled the competition at the first few UFC Championships. He would roll into the ring with his family in tow and would wrestle people twice his size into pretzels. His Jiu Jitsu was unique and people in the UFC were ill prepared to counteract against this.

The rules during he first few UFC's allowed Royce an advantage. There were no time limits which favored the more fit of the fighters which Royce obviously was, and strikers would get tired throwing punches and kicks. If a stand up fighter did not have good technique Royce would grab a leg or an arm and would put them into submission. But that is where the credit ends.

Since that era, just about everyone knows (or soon find out) that they need to be a more well rounded fighter. Fighters of today can't just be proficient as a stand up and fighter, even though most do. At the very least they need to understand that they need to be able to counteract someone that wants to take the fight to the mat.

Enter Matt Hughes.... Matt has been a Division 1 All American in wrestling. He is very strong for his weight and his ground skills are superior which keep wrestlers from trying to take him down. He is not just a capable wrestler as he has been known to pick up opponents that try to armbar him and powerbomb them to the mat to get them to let go. He is the current UFC Welterweight Champion with a record of 38 - 4. He is adept at both stinking and submission style. Of his 38 wins 12 were TKOs (31.58%), 18 were submissions (47.37%), and 8 were decisions (21.05%). He has only been beat 4 times, twice each from TKO and submission.

One more edge for Matt is that his is obviously more familiar with the new format that the UFC has gone to and has more recent fights. Lastly, Matt is 7 years younger the Royce. Now that may not seem like a lot, but as Royce is approaching 40 he is clearly entering the twilight of his great career and is not at the peak of it (just ask any of the current twilight start of the Detroit Red Wings)

My prognostication is that Royce and Matt will start out standing and eventually Matt will connect with a punch or kick and Royce will go to the ground. At that point Royce will try to submit Matt but Matt will TKO Royce Gracie (in the second round about 3:45 if I were to guess).